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Business formation is broadening , yet the new firms do not plan to hire…
Bank of America internal data shows the lower-income share of new business applications rising from roughly…
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July Beige Book: The Margin Is the Shock Absorber
The Beige Book is a Federal Reserve System publication about current economic conditions across the 12 Federal Reserve…
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Surface Strength, Underlying Fragility: Why the Floor Is Rising
For a PDF of this article, please refer to the bottom of the page. US Economy…
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Wage Pressure Concentrates in the Cyclical Core
Wages are accelerating fastest in exactly the sectors most exposed to the business cycle. The textbook…
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Share of Cyclical Industries in Payroll Gains Is Rising
A year ago, defensive sectors drove two-thirds of US job gains. Today they drive less than…
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Beneath the Headline: May Payrolls Data
May payrolls grew 172,000 — but look beneath the headline. Leisure & Hospitality contributed to 70…
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FED’s Strong Hawkish Positioning
The Fed decided to put rates on hold during its most recent meeting on June 17,…
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Macro Stability ≠ Capital Inflows: The China Case
Despite showing notable resilience in both bond and FX markets amid the Iran shock, China failed…
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U.S. Labor Market: AI
The U.S. labor market is growing where AI has the least presence and shrinking where it…
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Two-Tier Market
While the S&P 500 Index delivered a 10.81% return YTD, the composition of those returns tells…
Independent research and commentary for informational purposes only. Not investment advice.