New World Investment Research

Vanguard published a 2026 outlook report today and outlined their analysis of AI impact on labour markets.

What they found is that although AI has begun reshaping how people work and has displaced some roles, it is not the main culprit behind the recent cooling in employment growth. In about 100 job categories most exposed to AI automation are leading the labor market, posting stronger employment gains and higher real wage growth than other occupations. Despite headline-grabbing test results where LLMs outperform humans in coding or other skills, they still fall short in real-world tasks requiring judgment and contextual understanding.