As I’ve outlined before – despite Beijing’s aim to accelerate domestic consumption and reduce overreliance on exports, the data shows that the projected growth from “new” industries (EVs, AI, robotics, batteries, and other high-tech) is far from offsetting the decline in “old” sectors (property and infrastructure) that were driving 5% growth of China in the past decades. This implies that to achieve the GDP growth target of 4.5-5% in 2026, Beijing will have to boost export growth even more than before.
The recent data confirms the trajectory. China’s exports grew much more rapidly than anticipated during the first two months of the year. Exports increased by almost 22% compared with the same period last year, far exceeding the 7.2% median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists.
Imports also rose sharply, climbing nearly 20%, according to data released Tuesday by the General Administration of Customs, resulting in a trade surplus of $214 billion – the highest ever recorded for that period.
My view is that this trend will continue onward in 2026 despite Beijing’s attempts at reviving domestic consumption. The current global macroeconomic, political, and financial outlook will not allow China to boost household consumption far enough to achieve its growth targets. Exports will continue to play a crucial role.
New World Invesment Research 
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