Amir Khamidullin

Asian manufacturing data point to stabilization rather than a synchronized rebound. The key signal in the PMIs is not the headline move above 50, but the composition of the recovery. In Taiwan and South Korea, improvements are being led by new orders and export demand, while output and employment remain subdued. This suggests firms are responding cautiously, waiting for clearer confirmation that the global tech cycle has turned before scaling production. The recovery in North Asia therefore looks order-led and still early-stage.

In Southeast Asia, higher PMI levels reflect a different growth model. Vietnam and Indonesia benefit from supply-chain diversification and structural inflows into manufacturing capacity, which helps keep PMIs in expansion even when global demand softens. However, the volatility in recent months shows that capacity additions are running ahead of final demand, creating stop-start momentum. Across the region, the implication is that manufacturing is no longer a drag on growth, but it is also not yet a reliable growth engine. The next phase will hinge less on inventory rebuilding and more on whether external demand translates into sustained production and hiring.